New Year Predictions

I figured that I would start a new tradition and give a review of the prior year. And make predictions for the coming year.

2007

The past year has seen a lot of changes both here at Satter.org and in the mobile world. Let start with the easy stuff Satter.org.

Satter.org's mission is very simple give back to the community in the form of knowledge. In this I think I have done a decent job. I wrote 94 blog entries and spoke at several conferences including MEDC 2007. In addition since Satter.org is not about making money I cut back on my Typepad account in order to save money. I also made back a little bit of the cost from people buying things at Amazon. Thank you to those who did that.

2007 was also a memorable year for the mobile world. Of course the first thing to mention is hardware. And the big news was Apple with its iPhone. While Apple made a big splash with its iPhone it is a far cry from dominating the mobile world. This year also saw increases in phone share by RIM and Microsoft. Both RIM and Microsoft have started to make inroads with consumers. RIM introduced the Pearl which is squarely aimed at consumers. The biggest loser has been Palm which has seen a decline in market share. The so called Smartphone global shipments should be well above 100 million units and account for around 10% of the total mobile phone market which is topping 1 billion phones shipped per year.

2007 also is a land market in mobile development. Many companies announced new development tools. The first is RIM with an addin for developing applications for its phones using Visual Studio. And of course Microsoft has released a new version of the Compact Framework and Visual Studio 2008. Apple is promising a SDK for the iPhone early next year. Finally Google announced Android aka the G phone. Android is both a new phone OS and developer SDK.

Not everyone was a winner. In addition to Palm, Qualcomm and Motorola were big losers. Qualcomm continues to be plagued by patent troubles. Motorola simply lost its shine in the mobile market.

2008

So what does 2008 hold for the mobile world. For once I think that the future is bright for mobile development. You have a lot of choice in platforms and tools. In addition, organizations are starting to see the value of having a mobile strategy and applications.

Of course everyone is thinking that Apple will announce 5 million iPhones at MacWorld. I don't know or care if they do. The big thing is how much capabilities will Apple give to developers. Unlike Windows Mobile Apple looks to be going down a elitist path. If history is any guide then I think such a path will lead to being a niche player. Apple's arrogance is thinking it knows best will again put Apple in the back of the pack in terms of innovation and organizational use.

Android is another platform on people's mind. I think though that Android will either die before seeing any hardware or shortly after. Already developers are complaining about how buggy the SDK and tools are for Android.

The big winner in 2008 will be RIM followed by Microsoft. RIM is going global. It will continue its push into new markets both business and consumer. Microsoft will also continue to grow. Both RIM and Microsoft understand that there is no finish line. Consistent stead growth is the path to having a company that is around for the long haul.

On the hardware side I think you will begin to see more handset makers release devices with lots of storage. Consumer flash drives will hit 256 gigabytes by the end of the year. 128 gigabyte drives will be widely available. I suspect we should see phones sporting 16 gigabytes by years end.

So what do you predict for 2008? Leave a comment.

Comments

[tom s.]

Generally I agree, although I am more cautious about the prospects for mobile applications.

HTC will be another big winner in 2008. And GPS will continue its move to becoming core to mobile phone capabilities. Not exactly going out on a limb in either case, I think.

[Scott]

Android's SDK is in beta/pre-release form. There are months to go to tweak it. Would you rather a an unfinished, buggy version for the masses to pick apart and give feedback on or one version dropped on you with a "like it or not, here it is" approach?

[Rabi Satter]

You are correct in pointing out that Android is in beta. The one thing to keep in mind is that rushing out a product in the mobile space can be the kiss of death. Users will not put up with a phone that does not work. One of the things that I must applaud Apple is putting out a great V1 product. Android on the other hand has more of the feel of a research project.